April 3, 2019
Defining A Recession
Henry Wadsworth Longfellow’s poem, “The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere,” retells the story of a patriot who shouts a harrowing warning to his fellow colonists: “A recession is coming! A recession is coming!”
Well, that’s not quite the story, but . . .
March 7, 2019
America The Beautiful
It’s common practice for the president or CEO of a company to include a letter to shareholders in the annual report. Berkshire Hathaway’s chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett, doesn’t buck the trend.
His annual letter captures plenty of attention, and this year was no exception. The focus is on . . .
January 17, 2019
Time to Return to Normal
The U.S. economy exhibited strong growth in the second and third quarter, a recession did not ensue, and yes, 2017’s lack of volatility was remarkable. We knew it wouldn’t last, but predicting an expected exit date is difficult.
January began 2018 on a firm footing, building on highs in the wake of tax reform, low interest rates, low inflation, and strong corporate profit growth. If stocks rise or fall on the fundamentals . . .
January 3, 2019
Watch the climate, not the weather
The market pyrotechnics of the last few months have as usual unsettled more than a few Wall Street watchers. This is no surprise, though it really does not make any sense.
For one thing, ups and downs in stock prices are a regular happenstance. Prices rise and prices fall, but the long-term path of least resistance is up. What’s more, in almost every year, there is . . .
December 4, 2018
An Average Year?
Now that triple-digit daily changes in the major leading market averages are more common than not, one has to wonder if this apparent volatility is a significant change in the overall scenario or whether this is nothing more than . . .
November 29, 2018
’tis the season. Or is it?
With only a few weeks to go before Christmas, it’s time to take a look at where we’ve been this year and what might lie ahead. Unlike 2017, at least from an investment perspective, things have changed dramatically.
November 8, 2018
Shake Off A Spooky October
What is it about the month of October? The stock market crash of 1929 ushered in the Great Depression.
Black Monday 1987, also in October, was driven by computer trading and portfolio insurance, though an economic calamity did not ensue.
During October 2008, the S&P 500 Index lost nearly 17%, the biggest monthly decline of the financial crisis.
As if those weren’t enough, there is also . . .
October 10, 2018
Pullback? No surprise.
The fact that stocks have been retreating for the last week or so should come as no surprise. For one thing, the sugar high produced by the tax-cut related earnings gains seems to be wearing off. As this takes place, more experienced investors are realizing that . . .
October 3, 2018
Goldilocks?
In the wake of the nonstop market advance of 2017, price action during the current year has been relatively restrained. Last year’s net result was a hefty double-digit advance with nary a significant pullback along the way. With the exception of the opening weeks of the current year, which seemed to suggest . . .
September 18, 2018
Sugar High
As we move through what in the past has traditionally been the most difficult time of the year for the stock market, we need to take a hard look at where things stand and what’s likely to be in store over the next few quarters.
August 28, 2018
Beware the Witching Season
The 60 days following Labor Day have traditionally been among the most difficult of times for the stock market. Indeed, October has been Ground Zero for the biggest market drops of the last 100 years. Yet, despite the fact that . . .
August 22, 2018
Politics or Profits?
The latest news from courtrooms in New York and the D.C. area comes at a time when the stock market seems to be on a path to new highs. These days of late summer are typically when folks used to take a breather and disconnect from whatever is making headlines in the media.
Those days are gone. It’s almost as if . . .
August 13, 2018
Here’s What’s Important About Earnings Reports
Part of the process of evaluating the underpinnings of stocks is the information companies report during what’s known as earnings season. For companies reporting their quarterly results on a calendar-year basis (most do), there are four key reporting periods: late January/early February; late April/early May; late July/early August; and late October/early November. These are known as the earnings seasons.
Earnings seasons are when . . .
July 26, 2018
Tariffs, Threats, and Tweets
As we work our way through midsummer, it seems as if the news cycle has accelerated to warp speed. That’s hardly the kind of backdrop for what we usually think of as the time to relax. News of tariffs and trade wars is most certainly unsettling, especially in view of the prospect of higher costs and the likelihood of more restrained spending. These kinds of things, if taken to a higher degree, can lead to . . .
July 18, 2018
Up, Down & Sideways
In past years, summer brought with it a time to turn one’s thoughts to more blissful endeavors. Although childhood may have been many years ago, what lingers is the apparent freedom from care we felt when at last we were done with school. Much has changed since those halcyon days when time hardly seemed to move. Back then, the days went by slowly and . . .
June 28, 2018
Fasten Your Seat Belts
Given the acceleration of important developments in the U.S. and abroad, it’s no wonder that investors have been girding themselves against the impact of nonstop breaking news. Although over time the stock market is primarily a reflection of changes in underlying fundamentals, day-to-day price action tends to be . . .
June 20, 2018
Rocky Road Ahead?
These days, it has become increasingly difficult to disconnect and turn aside from the nonstop barrage of news, some of which is exceedingly unpleasant. What’s more, the level of business uncertainty has risen, a happenstance that never sits well with Wall Street. That’s not a good sign for . . .
June 11, 2018
Much Ado, Little Progress
Not that long ago, the media often had to scratch around for developments that might hold the interest of its audience. Days and weeks would go by and from time to time we’d tune in to find out what was going on throughout this country and abroad.
That was then and this is now. Fast forward to the present and there seems to be . . .
May 31, 2018
Going Nowhere Fast
Despite numerous triple-digit market moves so far this year, there’s been no substantial progress since the end of 2017. Lots of turbulence, but essentially no forward movement.
This isn’t really surprising since . . .
May 17, 2018
Flat Market Ahead?
One of the truisms in investing is that periods of unusually broad gains are followed by years when more moderate increases are likely. Most of us recall less than fondly that the decade from 2000-2010 was a span when market prices went nowhere, albeit with a fair amount of volatility along the way. The decade included the debacle of 2001-2002 as well as that of 2008-2009.
May 9, 2018
Can You Make Money In A Flat Market?
Yes, you can. Although the gains for the S&P 500 over many decades past have averaged about 10%, that includes gains and losses in some years that are a multiple of that rate. So a target of about 10% would be . . .
From this perspective, there really is . . .
May 4, 2018
A H0-Hum Week
Although we’re well into the first-quarter earnings season, Wall Street seems more bored than not with the latest news. Corporate profits overall are coming in ahead of estimates, but stock prices continue in the broadly fluctuating range that began in early February.
From this perspective, there really is . . .
April 19, 2018
Who is an Investment Adviser?
For years, the Wall Street community has had a field day offering the promise of a bright future while keeping largely mum about the kinds of profits it reaps from selling its broad array of great opportunities. Those who have seen the movie, The Wolf of Wall Street, got a glimpse of . . .
April 12, 2018
Zero-Sum Market
In the wake of nearly a year and a half of exceptionally stable and strong stock market activity, the beginning of February saw an unleashing of daily price movements not unlike what you would have expected from . . .
April 3, 2018
How To Handle Market Volatility
Now that typical daily market moves are in the hundreds of points on the Dow Jones Average, it will be helpful (and perhaps calming) to learn how today’s gyrations compare with those of the past. As we review historical data, we will learn . . .
March 23, 2018
The Storm After The Calm
Regression to the Mean is a term that’s regularly used by folks who refer to the tendency of various types of activity to return to what had historically been the normal range. What we witnessed in 2017 was . . .
February 28, 2018
Get Used To Volatility
In the wake of the almost soporific market advance of 2017, more than a few investors have deluded themselves into thinking that this course is the new normal. Surprise, surprise. It most definitely is not.
February 23, 2018
Muddling Through Market Turbulence
These days, it seems as if triple-digit market moves are the new norm. Although it was only a few short weeks ago when the media trumpeted news of the single biggest point drop in market history. All of which amounts to so much rubbish since . . .
February 14, 2018
Investment Lingo in Plain English
It’s times like these when most investors are wondering what’s going on and what to make of it. As most of us are well aware, when attempting to explain the latest developments, the seers on Wall Street are often tempted to use terms that are either vacuous, silly or just plain pretentious. So here goes my effort to . . .
February 9, 2018
The Long-Awaited Correction Is Here
Much like pullbacks of the past, the market turmoil we’re now seeing is a dramatic break from the seemingly nonstop advance of the latest five quarters. Indeed, the steadiness and almost dependable gains enjoyed on most recent days were certainly enough to . . .
February 2, 2018
The Market Is Finally Coming To Its Senses
After more than a year of unprecedented stability and gains after which valuations ended up at levels that could only be described as priced for perfection, investors have finally awakened to the reality that . . .
January 18, 2018
Time For A Reality Check
Lest anyone be lulled into a sense that the steady and stable market advance that we enjoyed over the last year was a precursor of a new normal, I strongly suggest that . . .
January 11, 2018
Good News and Bad News
Not only is the U.S. economy moving ahead at an impressive rate, but so are most of the major economies around the world. So it’s no surprise that there’s been . . .
January 3, 2018
Recession Probability? More Than A Year Away
It’s safe to say that the U.S. economy has more than enough momentum to stay on a roll straight through the year. The prospect of reduced corporate taxes raises the probability even higher. Yet, as we all know . . .
December 29, 2017
Does January Predict The Full Year?
One of the well-known Wall Street tales is that whatever happens in January is likely to be a good indication of how the rest of the year will be. In the interest of getting a better understanding of the probabilities, I studied the returns of the Standard & Poor’s 500 for the last 50 years. The results of that study . . .
December 20, 2017
2018 Will Be Different
In the wake of the unusual market performance of 2017, one can be certain that what lies ahead will not be more of the same. For one thing, the most recent 12 months was exceptional both in terms of . . .
December 14, 2017
The View To 2018
The current year has been most unusual from an investment perspective. Whether it’s viewed as a Goldilocks environment or a confluence of favorable factors, stock market advances, both in the U.S. and abroad, have been well above average. Even more interesting, however, is . . .
December 7, 2017
Is Volatility Returning?
The current year has been one of unusual calm in the investment markets. Now that we’re almost halfway through December, it has been a period of minimal market fluctuation along with well above average upward progress. The latter is largely . . .
November 30, 2017
The Tax Bill May Not Be Good News
As the day of decision on the future of U.S. taxes draws near, it seems appropriate to give further thought to its potential impact on business and individual taxpayers. Behind all the hoopla surrounding this legislation, the probability is . . .
November 16, 2017
As The Tax Bill Goes, So Goes The Market
Given the rich valuation of the U.S. market, the best explanation for the current optimism being shown by investors is their expectation that . . .
November 9, 2017
Is The Correction Finally Here
In the wake of the latest round of nationwide elections, there are early signs of discontent among the voters. The turnout was well above expectations and the results suggest . . .
November 6, 2017
Are Stock Prices in La La Land?
One can only marvel at the nonstop advance of the leading market averages. It’s almost as if the law of stock market gravity has been repealed. Triple-digit stock price quotes abound and it seems . . .
October 30, 2017
Smart Investors Don’t Go To Cocktail Parties
Although folks love to talk about their investment successes when they get together for drinks, you can bet that their conversations will never turn to times when things didn’t work out . . .
October 11, 2017
Forty Ways To Stretch Your Budget
Credit Cards
- Pay your credit card balance in full each month. If you don’t pay your balance in full each month, you will be paying steep interest rates on the balance. that interest rate could easily be 15% to 20% or more annually. Call the credit card company and tell them . . .
October 3, 2017
Is A Tax Cut Coming?
Now that it has become clear that the ongoing efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act have come to naught, Congress is about to tackle what has been billed as a massive revision of the tax code. The last major rewrite of IRS regulations was some three decades back, so it seems like . . .
September 25, 2017
Why Asset Allocation Is Important
Although asset allocation and diversification are words that are regularly used when thinking about proper portfolio construction, more often than not lip service is not followed by actual attention to the process of putting together a grouping of securities that makes sense. What makes sense is . . .
September 12, 2017
Look Abroad For Better Stock Values
In any area other than the stock market, rising prices would reduce demand. But as the Dow climbs, so does investors’ interest. This makes no sense to me, and should make no sense to you.
August 29, 2017
Is A Correction Ahead?
So far this year, the major market averages have almost completely ignored the possibility that stock prices can actually move lower. Volatility for the year is among the lowest in a long time and short-term pullbacks of any consequence have been nonexistent. For investors, it seems . . .
August 23, 2017
All About Stock Screening
Earlier this summer, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard and perhaps the most outspoken proponent of passive investing, said that as indexing increases there will be an increased likelihood of . . .
August 16, 2017
Signs That Your Investments Need Attention
Investing should be boring. That’s not to say it’s up there with watching paint dry, but patience is essential, often lots of patience. Some of the most successful investors pride themselves on . . .
August 8, 2017
How To Forecast Stock Prices . . . Usually
Wall Street research can be extraordinarily useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the inner workings of companies. Having been on the research side of the investment world for many years, I’ve had extensive experience in . . .
August 3, 2017
A Rising Tide Has Not Lifted All Stocks
When the daily media reports focus on all-time highs in the stock market, you have to wonder whether your portfolio is doing as well. The odds are that it’s not.
July 26, 2017
Don’t Be Burned By Hot Stocks (and How To Find Good Ones)
Earlier this summer, I got a call from a fellow whose portfolio had lost almost one third in less than two months while the market was moving steadily higher. When I asked how this happened, he said . . .
July 19, 2017
Why You Should Be Concerned About High Stock Prices
Since early March, stocks have been trading in a relatively narrow range. Although the media has been making a big deal about the new highs for the Dow Jones average, that index has gained little more than . . .
June 27, 2017
Is A Recession Coming? Watch The Yield Curve.
After more than eight years of recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-9, it seems increasingly unlikely that the U.S. economy will continue to expand without a temporary pullback. Although the current expansion . . .
June 22, 2017
Looking For Current Income? Here Are Some Possibilities.
For investors seeking worthwhile current income, especially older folks depending on fixed-income investments, the past decade has been a time of slim pickin’s. Although it’s likely that interest rates will continue to rise over the next few years . . .
June 14, 2017
It’s Never Too Early To Start Financial Planning
Over the years, most of the financial planning work I’ve done has been with couples in their pre-retirement years. As the time for retirement draws closer, it’s no surprise that people in their 50s and 60s spend more time thinking about whether they have prepared adequately for life in their later years. But more recently . . .
June 7, 2017
Here’s Why Health Care and Technology Should Be In Most Portfolios
Although it’s well known that the odds are against us when trying to do better than the S&P 500, there remains the temptation to be among those who have actually succeeded. Since stock prices over time reflect changes in underlying earnings, it should be rather obvious that . . .
June 1, 2017
The Market’s Up and You’re Not? Here’s Why.
On Wall Street, it’s often misleading to think that a rising tide lifts all boards. That’s especially true this year, when much of the advance has been . . .
May 24, 2017
Sell Stocks In May? Come Back in October?
If you have ever thought of taking the summer off from time spent with your investments, that may not be a bad idea. As it turns out . . .
May 16, 2017
Not All High Dividend ETFs Are Taking A Breather
Numerous stock selection strategies have been tried; few have stood the test of time. Focusing on high growth and above average price momentum is a strategy that works well during periods of market strength, but it’s a double-edged sword. That’s because . . .
May 10, 2017
Four Rules For Smart Investors
One of the basic rules for investment advisers is to know your client. In theory, the reason for that rule is to ensure that the adviser is providing appropriate advice to the client. But it’s equally important for . . .
May 3, 2017
Five Suggestions for Better Stock Picking
Although it must be clear that what happens to prices of stocks over short periods of time is largely a reflection of changes in investor psychology, there is . . .
April 27, 2017
How To Prepare An Expense Budget
All of us look to the future and hope for the best, but not everyone makes the effort to collect the data needed to answer the question: “Will I have enough?” Indeed, most people . . .
April 20, 2017
The Market Needs A Breather
In the aftermath of an extended runup in stock prices, such as what we have experienced since the early months of 2009, investors tend to get increasingly concerned about . . .
April 12, 2017
Progress Trumps Politics
It seems likely that much of the impetus behind the post-election market rally is the prospect of accelerated economic activity, which over time has been the prime mover for stock prices. Yet . . .
April 5, 2017
Why Dollar-Cost Averaging is a Good Idea
At times such as these when more than a few reasonably experienced Wall Streeters have commented on the richness of current stock valuations, it makes sense to . . .
March 29, 2017
Prepare for a Difficult Stock Market
The stock market rally that has been under way since last November’s election has been fueled in large part by investors’ expectations of . . .
March 23, 2017
What You Should Expect From Your Financial Adviser
Engaging the assistance of a financial adviser has a broad range of dimensions, typically more than most folks might expect. Often what prompts the start of a search for assistance is . . .
March 15, 2017
How to find good stock investments
Two of the questions I hear regularly are “When to buy?” and “When to sell? Those kinds of inquiries suggest that there’s an absolute level at which a security is worth adding to one’s portfolio as well as a price when it’s time to say adios. It would be nice to think . . .
March 9, 2017
Investing rules don’t change
It’s never different, though there are times when some of us are tempted to believe that there are good reasons to think that . . .
March 1, 2017
Will the stock market rally continue?
The seemingly nonstop rally that’s been under way since last November’s election may be tempting to join, but years of watching these kinds of things tell me . . .
23 February, 2017
Stock market rallies don’t continue forever
Although it seems as if the stock market can only go higher, that kind of thinking often leads to trouble. After an eight-year rally from the depths of early 2009, the leading averages continue to climb into new high territory, apparently in expectation of a substantial upturn in underlying corporate profitability. Whether that’s a reasonable possibility or fantasy is . . .
15 February, 2017
Where do stocks go from here?
If our only focus is on Wall Street and a stock market that seems to know only one direction, one might think . . .
8 February, 2017
February 8 – commentary
One can only marvel at the pace of activity in Washington these days and wonder where it all will lead. It’s one thing to go right to work fulfilling campaign promises, but . . .
1 February, 2017
February 1 – commentary
The opening days of the new administration seem to have raised a few eyebrows on Wall Street and made more than a few investors rethink . . .
25 January, 2017
January 25 – commentary
Campaign promises and bluster notwithstanding, change takes place far more slowly in Washington than the candidates would have us believe. Don’t expect . . .
17 January, 2017
January 17 – commentary
Two months and counting after the November election and it appears
that the recent market euphoria may be . . .
10 January, 2017
January 10 – commentary
The market rally following November’s presidential election took most Wall Street observers by surprise. Indeed, what was…
3 January, 2017
January 3 – commentary
The year just passed was an enigma. In early January, only days after the strains of Auld Lang Syne had faded, the investment markets plunged,
28 December 2016
December 28 – commentary
Investors’ Resolutions for the New Year: 1. Buy what has value, not what is popular. 2. Ignore the media. 3. Don’t be tempted by lists of “Top 10 Investments”.
21 December 2016
December 21 – commentary
It was the night before Christmas and all through the house . . . Yes, many creatures were stirring and I suppose most of them were thankful that the year ….
14 December 2016
December 14 – commentary
As expected, the Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates by another 0.25%, hardly a big jump, but certainly a signal that the governors are watching…
7 December 2016
December 7 – commentary
It’s hard to believe that we’re almost halfway through the holiday season, but so far the economic signs are encouraging. Still, only a month and a half from now we’ll be…
29 November 2016
November 29 – commentary
Congratulations to those of us who didn’t walk away from the Thanksgiving dinner table wishing that we hadn’t gone back for second or third portions.
22 November 2016
November 22 – commentary
Hard to believe. It’s been 53 years since the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and almost a century since the end of World War I.
15 November 2016
November 15 – commentary
As much as the pollsters would like to have us think that they had a handle on what was going on, the result of last week’s presidential …
8 November 2016
November 8 – commentary
Here we are after the longest election campaign in history. It’s the Judgement Day. For months the polls have been up and down, but within hours.