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Commentary on Business & Investments

CommentaryRussell Wayne, CFP®2020-04-21T12:35:27+00:00
April 15, 2020

Not So Fast!

After months of denial, efforts to contain, and more recently the widespread (and largely followed) directive to maximize social distancing, it appears that some progress is being made to slow the devastation caused by the coronavirus.  The availability of tests has increased, the rate of new infection has slowed, and . . .

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April 8, 2020

Where Are We Now?

More than a few times over the last few years, I have commented on the looming possibility of daily changes in the market averages well above the relatively mundane moves of 100 to 200 points that have become commonplace.  What we had been used to was . . .

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March 27, 2020

Sound Advice

Quite frequently, I have been asked for my thoughts on the markets and other things so here they are. This is not meant to be the script to the future, but instead some food for thought for those looking for perspective.

Let me begin by saying . . .

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January 27, 2020

Is It Time To Get Nervous?

With 10 months to go before the November election, it appears that the recent market euphoria may be beginning to fade. Expectations of a more robust pace of business activity are one thing, but . . .

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January 7, 2020

Breaking News: Volatility Ahead

The combination of exceptional investment returns registered last year and rising heat in the geopolitical arena suggests that this year will see an increase in day-to-day price volatility.  Although seasonal volatility tends to increase during late summer and early autumn, it seems likely that . . .

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January 3, 2020

Don’t Expect Another Big Gain

As has often been the case after the market has turned in an unusually broad advance, the gurus of Wall Street continue to build their cases for more of the same.  This most certainly is a replay of a recent film entitled Dumb and Dumber.

Successful investors are best served by . . .

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December 19, 2019

What’s Ahead for 2020

As we wind down what will soon be the old year and complete our plans for the holidays, it’s always a good idea to take stock of where we’ve been and what we have to look forward to.  2019 has been an interesting year, especially so for the financial markets, which have provided returns far in excess of . . .

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October 2, 2019

It’s The Witching Month

Over the years, October has often been a period when the stock market tended toward unusual volatility.  The biggest drop of the past half century, 22%, took place back in October, 1987, and more than a few of those early fall months have seen substantial movements in both directions.  Indeed, only a year ago . . .

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September 24, 2019

Six Social Security Traps To Avoid

On January 31, 1940, the first monthly Social Security check was issued to Ida May Fuller of Ludlow, Vermont.  It was for $22.54.  She was 65 years old at the time and passed away at 100 years of age.

Ida May Fuller worked for three years under the Social Security program, paid a total of $24.75 in payroll taxes, and collected $22,888.92 in Social Security benefits.

Today, nearly 70 million people receive . . .

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September 23, 2019

The Bond Market Turns Upside Down

When I was younger–much younger–I remember folks with stocking stuffers and presents under a tree.  For some kids, the stocking stuffers included a passbook savings account, with a $100 gift from Santa.  Wise parents, for sure.  Besides offering a great lesson on savings, those parents provided a simple explanation of bank savings accounts and monthly interest.  In those days, FDIC-insured savings accounts earned 5%.

How times have changed!

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July 24, 2019

One Small Step . . .

It seems like only yesterday that Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin set foot on the moon, but yesterday really was a half century ago.  Since then, this country’s pace of space exploration has slowed dramatically.  Over the same period, the rate of progress on Wall Street has taken off.

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July 11, 2019

Records Are Made To Be Broken

We’ve all heard it said: “Records are made to be broken.” We celebrate record-breaking winning streaks from our favorite teams. Conversely, we hope to avoid a long string of losses.

The bull market that began in 2009 is not the best performing since WWII. That title still resides with the long-running bull market of the 1990s. But it is the longest running since WWII.

 

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June 14, 2019

Navigating Global Headlines

Last month I said, “Investors remain optimistic that U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators will come to terms on an ever-elusive trade agreement.”  Unfortunately, “ever-elusive” continues to be the operative word.

Since early May, there has been an ongoing issue of tariffs, first with the Chinese, then with Mexico.

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May 8, 2019

Saving for College – 529 Plans

We all want what is best for our children.  At an early age, we teach them to eat the right foods; we place them in the best preschools; we encourage them in grade school and high school; and we cheer them on when they excel in extracurricular activities.

Put another way, we want our children to succeed in all aspects of life.

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April 3, 2019

Defining A Recession

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow’s poem, “The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere,” retells the story of a patriot who shouts a harrowing warning to his fellow colonists: “A recession is coming! A recession is coming!”

Well, that’s not quite the story, but . . .

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March 7, 2019

America The Beautiful

It’s common practice for the president or CEO of a company to include a letter to shareholders in the annual report.  Berkshire Hathaway’s chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett, doesn’t buck the trend.

His annual letter captures plenty of attention, and this year was no exception.  The focus is on . . .

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January 17, 2019

Time to Return to Normal

The U.S. economy exhibited strong growth in the second and third quarter, a recession did not ensue, and yes, 2017’s lack of volatility was remarkable.  We knew it wouldn’t last, but predicting an expected exit date is difficult.

January began 2018 on a firm footing, building on highs in the wake of tax reform, low interest rates, low inflation, and strong corporate profit growth.  If stocks rise or fall on the fundamentals . . .

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January 3, 2019

Watch the climate, not the weather

The market pyrotechnics of the last few months have as usual unsettled more than a few Wall Street watchers.  This is no surprise, though it really does not make any sense.

For one thing, ups and downs in stock prices are a regular happenstance.  Prices rise and prices fall, but the long-term path of least resistance is up.  What’s more, in almost every year, there is . . .

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December 4, 2018

An Average Year?

Now that triple-digit daily changes in the major leading market averages are more common than not, one has to wonder if this apparent volatility is a significant change in the overall scenario or whether this is nothing more than . . .

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November 29, 2018

’tis the season.  Or is it?

With only a few weeks to go before Christmas, it’s time to take a look at where we’ve been this year and what might lie ahead.  Unlike 2017, at least from an investment perspective, things have changed dramatically.

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November 8, 2018

Shake Off A Spooky October

What is it about the month of October?  The stock market crash of 1929 ushered in the Great Depression.

Black Monday 1987, also in October, was driven by computer trading and portfolio insurance, though an economic calamity did not ensue.

During October 2008, the S&P 500 Index lost nearly 17%, the biggest monthly decline of the financial crisis.

As if those weren’t enough, there is also . . .

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October 10, 2018

Pullback?  No surprise.

The fact that stocks have been retreating for the last week or so should come as no surprise.  For one thing, the sugar high produced by the tax-cut related earnings gains seems to be wearing off.  As this takes place, more experienced investors are realizing that . . .

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October 3, 2018

Goldilocks?

In the wake of the nonstop market advance of 2017, price action during the current year has been relatively restrained.  Last year’s net result was a hefty double-digit advance with nary a significant pullback along the way.  With the exception of the opening weeks of the current year, which seemed to suggest . . .

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September 18, 2018

Sugar High

As we move through what in the past has traditionally been the most difficult time of the year for the stock market, we need to take a hard look at where things stand and what’s likely to be in store over the next few quarters.

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August 28, 2018

Beware the Witching Season

The 60 days following Labor Day have traditionally been among the most difficult of times for the stock market.  Indeed, October has been Ground Zero for the biggest market drops of the last 100 years.  Yet, despite the fact that . . .

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August 22, 2018

Politics or Profits?

The latest news from courtrooms in New York and the D.C. area comes at a time when the stock market seems to be on a path to new highs.  These days of late summer are typically when folks used to take a breather and disconnect from whatever is making headlines in the media.

Those days are gone.  It’s almost as if . . .

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August 13, 2018

Here’s What’s Important About Earnings Reports

Part of the process of evaluating the underpinnings of stocks is the information companies report during what’s known as earnings season.  For companies reporting their quarterly results on a calendar-year basis (most do), there are four key reporting periods: late January/early February; late April/early May; late July/early August; and late October/early November.  These are known as the earnings seasons.

Earnings seasons are when . . .

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July 26, 2018

Tariffs, Threats, and Tweets

As we work our way through midsummer, it seems as if the news cycle has accelerated to warp speed.  That’s hardly the kind of backdrop for what we usually think of as the time to relax.  News of tariffs and trade wars is most certainly unsettling, especially in view of the prospect of higher costs and the likelihood of more restrained spending.  These kinds of things, if taken to a higher degree, can lead to . . .

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July 18, 2018

Up, Down & Sideways

In past years, summer brought with it a time to turn one’s thoughts to more blissful endeavors.  Although childhood may have been many years ago, what lingers is the apparent freedom from care we felt when at last we were done with school.  Much has changed since those halcyon days when time hardly seemed to move.  Back then, the days went by slowly and . . .

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June 28, 2018

Fasten Your Seat Belts

Given the acceleration of important developments in the U.S. and abroad, it’s no wonder that investors have been girding themselves against the impact of nonstop breaking news.  Although over time the stock market is primarily a reflection of changes in underlying fundamentals, day-to-day price action tends to be . . .

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June 20, 2018

Rocky Road Ahead?

These days, it has become increasingly difficult to disconnect and turn aside from the nonstop barrage of news, some of which is exceedingly unpleasant.  What’s more, the level of business uncertainty has risen, a happenstance that never sits well with Wall Street.  That’s not a good sign for . . .

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June 11, 2018

Much Ado, Little Progress

Not that long ago, the media often had to scratch around for developments that might hold the interest of its audience.  Days and weeks would go by and from time to time we’d tune in to find out what was going on throughout this country and abroad.

That was then and this is now.  Fast forward to the present and there seems to be . . .

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May 31, 2018

Going Nowhere Fast

Despite numerous triple-digit market moves so far this year, there’s been no substantial progress since the end of 2017.  Lots of turbulence, but essentially no forward movement.

This isn’t really surprising since . . .

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May 17, 2018

Flat Market Ahead?

One of the truisms in investing is that periods of unusually broad gains are followed by years when more moderate increases are likely.  Most of us recall less than fondly that the decade from 2000-2010 was a span when market prices went nowhere, albeit with a fair amount of volatility along the way. The decade included the debacle of 2001-2002 as well as that of 2008-2009.

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May 9, 2018

Can You Make Money In A Flat Market?

Yes, you can.  Although the gains for the S&P 500 over many decades past have averaged about 10%, that includes gains and losses in some years that are a multiple of that rate.  So a target of about 10% would be . . .

From this perspective, there really is . . .

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May 4, 2018

A H0-Hum Week

Although we’re well into the first-quarter earnings season, Wall Street seems more bored than not with the latest news.  Corporate profits overall are coming in ahead of estimates, but stock prices continue in the broadly fluctuating range that began in early February.

From this perspective, there really is . . .

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April 19, 2018

Who is an Investment Adviser?

For years, the Wall Street community has had a field day offering the promise of a bright future while keeping largely mum about the kinds of profits it reaps from selling its broad array of great opportunities.  Those who have seen the movie, The Wolf of Wall Street, got a glimpse of . . .

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April 12, 2018

Zero-Sum Market

In the wake of nearly a year and a half of exceptionally stable and strong stock market activity, the beginning of February saw an unleashing of daily price movements not unlike what you would have expected from . . .

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April 3, 2018

How To Handle Market Volatility

Now that typical daily market moves are in the hundreds of points on the Dow Jones Average, it will be helpful (and perhaps calming) to learn how today’s gyrations compare with those of the past.  As we review historical data, we will learn . . .

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March 23, 2018

The Storm After The Calm

Regression to the Mean is a term that’s regularly used by folks who refer to the tendency of various types of activity to return to what had historically been the normal range.  What we witnessed in 2017 was . . .

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February 28, 2018

Get Used To Volatility

In the wake of the almost soporific market advance of 2017, more than a few investors have deluded themselves into thinking that this course is the new normal. Surprise, surprise.  It most definitely is not.

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February 23, 2018

Muddling Through Market Turbulence

These days, it seems as if triple-digit market moves are the new norm.  Although it was only a few short weeks ago when the media trumpeted news of the single biggest point drop in market history.  All of which amounts to so much rubbish since . . .

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February 14, 2018

Investment Lingo in Plain English

It’s times like these when most investors are wondering what’s going on and what to make of it.  As most of us are well aware, when attempting to explain the latest developments, the seers on Wall Street are often tempted to use terms that are either vacuous, silly or just plain pretentious.  So here goes my effort to . . .

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February 9, 2018

The Long-Awaited Correction Is Here

Much like pullbacks of the past, the market turmoil we’re now seeing is a dramatic break from the seemingly nonstop advance of the latest five quarters.  Indeed, the steadiness and almost dependable gains enjoyed on most recent days were certainly enough to . . .

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February 2, 2018

The Market Is Finally Coming To Its Senses

After more than a year of unprecedented stability and gains after which valuations ended up at levels that could only be described as priced for perfection, investors have finally awakened to the reality that . . .

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January 18, 2018

Time For A Reality Check

Lest anyone be lulled into a sense that the steady and stable market advance that we enjoyed over the last year was a precursor of a new normal, I strongly suggest that . . .

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January 11, 2018

Good News and Bad News

Not only is the U.S. economy moving ahead at an impressive rate, but so are most of the major economies around the world.  So it’s no surprise that there’s been . . .

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January 3, 2018

Recession Probability?  More Than A Year Away

It’s safe to say that the U.S. economy has more than enough momentum to stay on a roll straight through the year.  The prospect of reduced corporate taxes raises the probability even higher.  Yet, as we all know . . .

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December 29, 2017

Does January Predict The Full Year?

One of the well-known Wall Street tales is that whatever happens in January is likely to be a good indication of how the rest of the year will be.  In the interest of getting a better understanding of the probabilities, I studied the returns of the Standard & Poor’s 500 for the last 50 years.  The results of that study . . .

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December 20, 2017

2018 Will Be Different

In the wake of the unusual market performance of 2017, one can be certain that what lies ahead will not be more of the same.  For one thing, the most recent 12 months was exceptional both in terms of . . .

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December 14, 2017

The View To 2018

The current year has been most unusual from an investment perspective.  Whether it’s viewed as a Goldilocks environment or a confluence of favorable factors, stock market advances, both in the U.S. and abroad, have been well above average.  Even more interesting, however, is . . .

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December 7, 2017

Is Volatility Returning?

The current year has been one of unusual calm in the investment markets.  Now that we’re almost halfway through December, it has been a period of minimal market fluctuation along with well above average upward progress.  The latter is largely . . .

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November 30, 2017

The Tax Bill May Not Be Good News

As the day of decision on the future of U.S. taxes draws near, it seems appropriate to give further thought to its potential impact on business and individual taxpayers.  Behind all the hoopla surrounding this legislation, the probability is . . .

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November 16, 2017

As The Tax Bill Goes, So Goes The Market

Given the rich valuation of the U.S. market, the best explanation for the current optimism being shown by investors is their expectation that . . .

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November 9, 2017

Is The Correction Finally Here

In the wake of the latest round of nationwide elections, there are early signs of discontent among the voters.  The turnout was well above expectations and the results suggest . . .

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November 6, 2017

Are Stock Prices in La La Land?

One can only marvel at the nonstop advance of the leading market averages.  It’s almost as if the law of stock market gravity has been repealed.  Triple-digit stock price quotes abound and it seems . . .

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October 30, 2017

Smart Investors Don’t Go To Cocktail Parties

Although folks love to talk about their investment successes when they get together for drinks, you can bet that their conversations will never turn to times when things didn’t work out . . .

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October 11, 2017

Forty Ways To Stretch Your Budget

Credit Cards

  • Pay your credit card balance in full each month.  If you don’t pay your balance in full each month, you will be paying steep interest rates on the balance.  that interest rate could easily be 15% to 20% or more annually.  Call the credit card company and tell them . . .
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October 3, 2017

Is A Tax Cut Coming?

Now that it has become clear that the ongoing efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act have come to naught, Congress is about to tackle what has been billed as a massive revision of the tax code.  The last major rewrite of IRS regulations was some three decades back, so it seems like . . .

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September 25, 2017

Why Asset Allocation Is Important

Although asset allocation and diversification are words that are regularly used when thinking about proper portfolio construction, more often than not lip service is not followed by actual attention to the process of putting together a grouping of securities that makes sense.  What makes sense is . . .

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September 12, 2017

Look Abroad For Better Stock Values

In any area other than the stock market, rising prices would reduce demand.  But as the Dow climbs, so does investors’ interest.  This makes no sense to me, and should make no sense to you.

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August 29, 2017

Is A Correction Ahead?

So far this year, the major market averages have almost completely ignored the possibility that stock prices can actually move lower.  Volatility for the year is among the lowest in a long time and short-term pullbacks of any consequence have been nonexistent.  For investors, it seems . . .

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August 23, 2017

All About Stock Screening

Earlier this summer, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard and perhaps the most outspoken proponent of passive investing, said that as indexing increases there will be an increased likelihood of . . .

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August 16, 2017

Signs That Your Investments Need Attention

Investing should be boring.  That’s not to say it’s up there with watching paint dry, but patience is essential, often lots of patience.  Some of the most successful investors pride themselves on . . .

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August 8, 2017

How To Forecast Stock Prices . . . Usually

Wall Street research can be extraordinarily useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the inner workings of companies.  Having been on the research side of the investment world for many years, I’ve had extensive experience in . . .

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August 3, 2017

A Rising Tide Has Not Lifted All Stocks

When the daily media reports focus on all-time highs in the stock market, you have to wonder whether your portfolio is doing as well.  The odds are that it’s not.

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July 26, 2017

Don’t Be Burned By Hot Stocks (and How To Find Good Ones)

Earlier this summer, I got a call from a fellow whose portfolio had lost almost one third in less than two months while the market was moving steadily higher.  When I asked how this happened, he said . . .

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July 19, 2017

Why You Should Be Concerned About High Stock Prices

Since early March, stocks have been trading in a relatively narrow range.  Although the media has been making a big deal about the new highs for the Dow Jones average, that index has gained little more than . . .

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June 27, 2017

Is A Recession Coming?  Watch The Yield Curve.

After more than eight years of recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-9, it seems increasingly unlikely that the U.S. economy will continue to expand without a temporary pullback. Although the current expansion . . .

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June 22, 2017

Looking For Current Income?  Here Are Some Possibilities.

For investors seeking worthwhile current income, especially older folks depending on fixed-income investments, the past decade has been a time of slim pickin’s.  Although it’s likely that interest rates will continue to rise over the next few years . . .

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June 14, 2017

It’s Never Too Early To Start Financial Planning

Over the years, most of the financial planning work I’ve done has been with couples in their pre-retirement years.  As the time for retirement draws closer, it’s no surprise that people in their 50s and 60s spend more time thinking about whether they have prepared adequately for life in their later years.  But more recently . . .

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June 7, 2017

Here’s Why Health Care and Technology Should Be In Most Portfolios

Although it’s well known that the odds are against us when trying to do better than the S&P 500, there remains the temptation to be among those who have actually succeeded.  Since stock prices over time reflect changes in underlying earnings, it should be rather obvious that . . .

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June 1, 2017

The Market’s Up and You’re Not?  Here’s Why.

On Wall Street, it’s often misleading to think that a rising tide lifts all boards.  That’s especially true this year, when much of the advance has been . . .

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May 24, 2017

Sell Stocks In May?  Come Back in October?

If you have ever thought of taking the summer off from time spent with your investments, that may not be a bad idea.  As it turns out . . .

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May 16, 2017

Not All High Dividend ETFs Are Taking A Breather

Numerous stock selection strategies have been tried; few have stood the test of time.  Focusing on high growth and above average price momentum is a strategy that works well during periods of market strength, but it’s a double-edged sword.  That’s because . . .

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May 10, 2017

Four Rules For Smart Investors

One of the basic rules for investment advisers is to know your client.  In theory, the reason for that rule is to ensure that the adviser is providing appropriate advice to the client.  But it’s equally important for . . .

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May 3, 2017

Five Suggestions for Better Stock Picking

Although it must be clear that what happens to prices of stocks over short periods of time is largely a reflection of changes in investor psychology, there is . . .

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April 27, 2017

How To Prepare An Expense Budget

All of us look to the future and hope for the best, but not everyone makes the effort to collect the data needed to answer the question: “Will I have enough?”  Indeed, most people . . .

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April 20, 2017

The Market Needs A Breather

In the aftermath of an extended runup in stock prices, such as what we have experienced since the early months of 2009, investors tend to get increasingly concerned about . . .

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April 12, 2017

Progress Trumps Politics

It seems likely that much of the impetus behind the post-election market rally is the prospect of accelerated economic activity, which over time has been the prime mover for stock prices.  Yet . . .

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April 5, 2017

Why Dollar-Cost Averaging is a Good Idea

At times such as these when more than a few reasonably experienced Wall Streeters have commented on the richness of current stock valuations, it makes sense to . . .

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March 29, 2017

Prepare for a Difficult Stock Market

The stock market rally that has been under way since last November’s election has been fueled in large part by investors’ expectations of . . .

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March 23, 2017

What You Should Expect From Your Financial Adviser

Engaging the assistance of a financial adviser has a broad range of dimensions, typically more than most folks might expect.  Often what prompts the start of a search for assistance is . . .

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March 15, 2017

How to find good stock investments

Two of the questions I hear regularly are “When to buy?” and “When to sell?  Those kinds of inquiries suggest that there’s an absolute level at which a security is worth adding to one’s portfolio as well as a price when it’s time to say adios.  It would be nice to think . . .

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March 9, 2017

Investing rules don’t change

It’s never different, though there are times when some of us are tempted to believe that there are good reasons to think that . . .

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March 1, 2017

Will the stock market rally continue?

The seemingly nonstop rally that’s been under way since last November’s election may be tempting to join, but years of watching these kinds of things tell me . . .

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23 February, 2017

Stock market rallies don’t continue forever

Although it seems as if the stock market can only go higher, that kind of thinking often leads to trouble. After an eight-year rally from the depths of early 2009, the leading averages continue to climb into new high territory, apparently in expectation of a substantial upturn in underlying corporate profitability. Whether that’s a reasonable possibility or fantasy is . . .

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15 February, 2017

Where do stocks go from here?

If our only focus is on Wall Street and a stock market that seems to know only one direction, one might think . . .

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8 February, 2017

February 8 – commentary

One can only marvel at the pace of activity in Washington these days and wonder where it all will lead.  It’s one thing to go right to work fulfilling campaign promises, but . . .

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1 February, 2017

February 1 – commentary

The opening days of the new administration seem to have raised a few eyebrows on Wall Street and made more than a few investors rethink . . .

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25 January, 2017

January 25 – commentary

Campaign promises and bluster notwithstanding, change takes place far more slowly in Washington than the candidates would have us believe.  Don’t expect . . .

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17 January, 2017

January 17 – commentary

Two months and counting after the November election and it appears
that the recent market euphoria may be . . .

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10 January, 2017

January 10 – commentary

The market rally following November’s presidential election took most Wall Street observers by surprise. Indeed, what was…

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3 January, 2017

January 3 – commentary

The year just passed was an enigma. In early January, only days after the strains of Auld Lang Syne had faded, the investment markets plunged,

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28 December 2016

December 28 – commentary

Investors’ Resolutions for the New Year: 1. Buy what has value, not what is popular. 2. Ignore the media. 3. Don’t be tempted by lists of “Top 10 Investments”.

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21 December 2016

December 21 – commentary

It was the night before Christmas and all through the house . . . Yes, many creatures were stirring and I suppose most of them were thankful that the year ….

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14 December 2016

December 14 – commentary

As expected, the Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates by another 0.25%, hardly a big jump, but certainly a signal that the governors are watching…

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7 December 2016

December 7 – commentary

It’s hard to believe that we’re almost halfway through the holiday season, but so far the economic signs are encouraging. Still, only a month and a half from now we’ll be…

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29 November 2016

November 29 – commentary

Congratulations to those of us who didn’t walk away from the Thanksgiving dinner table wishing that we hadn’t gone back for second or third portions.

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22 November 2016

November 22 – commentary

Hard to believe. It’s been 53 years since the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and almost a century since the end of World War I.

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15 November 2016

November 15 – commentary

As much as the pollsters would like to have us think that they had a handle on what was going on, the result of last week’s presidential …

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8 November 2016

November 8 – commentary

Here we are after the longest election campaign in history. It’s the Judgement Day. For months the polls have been up and down, but within hours.

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