After more than a year of unprecedented stability and gains after which valuations ended up at levels that could only be described as priced for perfection, investors have finally awakened to the reality that there is no such thing as a nonstop advance unburdened by the traditional range of valuation. It has been nearly two […]
Lest anyone be lulled into a sense that the steady and stable market advance that we enjoyed over the last year was a precursor of a new normal, I strongly suggest that it’s time to get real. Although there are substantial reasons to look forward to a further rise this year, hopes that it will […]
Not only is the U.S. economy moving ahead at an impressive rate, but so are most of the major economies around the world. So it’s no surprise that there’s been a global advance in most of the world’s stock markets. Still, it’s important to keep in mind that the U.S. economy has been a leader […]
It’s safe to say that the U.S. economy has more than enough momentum to stay on a roll straight through the year. The prospect of reduced corporate taxes raises the probability even higher. Yet, as we all know, trees do not grow to the sky and economic growth is not perfectly linear.
Although substantial fiscal stimulus […]
One of the well-known Wall Street tales is that whatever happens in January is likely to be a good indication of how the rest of the year will be. In the interest of getting a better understanding of the probabilities, I studied the returns of the Standard & Poor’s 500 for the last 50 years. […]
In the wake of the unusual market performance of 2017, one can be certain that what lies ahead will not be more of the same. For one thing, the most recent 12 months was exceptional both in terms of the rate of gain and the absence of volatility. The advance of about 18% already registered […]
The current year has been most unusual from an investment perspective. Whether it’s viewed as a Goldilocks environment or a confluence of favorable factors, stock market advances, both in the U.S. and abroad, have been well above average. Even more interesting, however, is that the fact that the gains have been almost nonstop.
In the past, […]
The current year has been one of unusual calm in the investment markets. Now that we’re almost halfway through December, it has been a period of minimal market fluctuation along with well above average upward progress. The latter is largely a reflection of continuing momentum reflecting underlying advances in profits, both domestic and international. Yet, […]
As the day of decision on the future of U.S. taxes draws near, it seems appropriate to give further thought to its potential impact on business and individual taxpayers. Behind all the hoopla surrounding this legislation, the probability is that whatever benefits may be forthcoming will be more like a sugar high that ultimately gives […]
Given the rich valuation of the U.S. market, the best explanation for the current optimism being shown by investors is their expectation that the tax bills now under consideration by the House and the Senate will become law. The major beneficiary of that legislation will be corporations, which may well enjoy substantial increases in their […]