Over the last two months, the pendulum of stock market volatility has swung from extreme stability to extreme fluctuation. For well over a year, the investing public has been lulled into a sense of security by a combination of near nonstop advances accompanied by relatively mild day-to-day changes. From a naïve perspective, it really doesn’t […]
Regression to the Mean is a term that’s regularly used by folks who refer to the tendency of various types of activity to return to what had historically been the normal range. What we witnessed in 2017 was extreme market stability accompanied by relatively steady and well above average gains.
Fast forward to the last couple […]
In the wake of the almost soporific market advance of 2017, more than a few investors have deluded themselves into thinking that course is the new normal. Surprise, surprise. It most definitely is not.
For most of the latest few weeks, triple-digit moves have become commonplace and, indeed, less than shocking. Although they represent a big […]
These days, it seems as if triple-digit market moves are the new norm. Although it was only a few short weeks ago when the media trumpeted news of the single biggest point drop in market history. All of which amounts to so much rubbish since points on the Dow by themselves rarely mean all that […]
It’s times like these when most investors are wondering what’s going on and what to make of it. As most of us are well aware, when attempting to explain the latest developments, the seers on Wall Street are often tempted to use terms that are either vacuous, silly or just plain pretentious. So here goes […]
Much like pullbacks of the past, the market turmoil we’re now seeing is a dramatic break from the seemingly nonstop advance of the latest five quarters. Indeed, the steadiness and almost dependable gains enjoyed on most recent days were certainly enough to lull the naïve investor into a state of hopeful expectation. The reality, of […]
After more than a year of unprecedented stability and gains after which valuations ended up at levels that could only be described as priced for perfection, investors have finally awakened to the reality that there is no such thing as a nonstop advance unburdened by the traditional range of valuation. It has been nearly two […]
Lest anyone be lulled into a sense that the steady and stable market advance that we enjoyed over the last year was a precursor of a new normal, I strongly suggest that it’s time to get real. Although there are substantial reasons to look forward to a further rise this year, hopes that it will […]
Not only is the U.S. economy moving ahead at an impressive rate, but so are most of the major economies around the world. So it’s no surprise that there’s been a global advance in most of the world’s stock markets. Still, it’s important to keep in mind that the U.S. economy has been a leader […]
It’s safe to say that the U.S. economy has more than enough momentum to stay on a roll straight through the year. The prospect of reduced corporate taxes raises the probability even higher. Yet, as we all know, trees do not grow to the sky and economic growth is not perfectly linear.
Although substantial fiscal stimulus […]