Despite numerous triple-digit market moves so far this year, there’s been no substantial progress since the end of 2017. Lots of turbulence, but essentially no forward movement.
This isn’t really surprising since investors tend to react to what lies ahead, not to what’s going on at the moment. So the well above average gains registered last […]
Flat Market Ahead?
One of the truisms in investing is that periods of unusually broad gains are followed by years when more moderate increases are likely. Most of us recall less than fondly that the decade from 2000-2010 was a span when market prices went nowhere, albeit with a fair amount of volatility along the way. […]
Yes, you can. Although the gains for the S&P 500 over many decades past have averaged about 10%, that includes gains and losses in some years that are a multiple of that rate. So a target of about 10% would be reasonably achievable for a long-term investor, but the long term would mean at least […]
Although we’re well into the first-quarter earnings season, Wall Street seems more bored than not with the latest news. Corporate profits overall are coming in ahead of estimates, but stock prices continue in the broadly fluctuating range that began in early February.
From this perspective, there really is no great reason for the market to move […]
For years, the Wall Street community has had a field day offering the promise of a bright future while keeping largely mum about the kinds of profits it reaps from selling its broad array of great opportunities. Those who have seen the movie, The Wolf of Wall Street, got a glimpse of the seamy underbelly […]
In the wake of nearly a year and a half of exceptionally stable and strong stock market activity, the beginning of February saw an unleashing of daily price movements not unlike what you would have expected from the awakening of a sleeping giant. Three-quarters of the trading days since then have seen triple-digit changes and […]
Now that typical daily market moves are in the hundreds of points on the Dow Jones Average, it will be helpful (and perhaps calming) to learn how today’s gyrations compare with those of the past. As we review extensive historical data, we will learn that what now seems unusual is really a return to what […]
Over the last two months, the pendulum of stock market volatility has swung from extreme stability to extreme fluctuation. For well over a year, the investing public has been lulled into a sense of security by a combination of near nonstop advances accompanied by relatively mild day-to-day changes. From a naïve perspective, it really doesn’t […]
Regression to the Mean is a term that’s regularly used by folks who refer to the tendency of various types of activity to return to what had historically been the normal range. What we witnessed in 2017 was extreme market stability accompanied by relatively steady and well above average gains.
Fast forward to the last couple […]
In the wake of the almost soporific market advance of 2017, more than a few investors have deluded themselves into thinking that course is the new normal. Surprise, surprise. It most definitely is not.
For most of the latest few weeks, triple-digit moves have become commonplace and, indeed, less than shocking. Although they represent a big […]